Luke Emberson

Luke Emberson is a researcher on Epoch AI's data team. He focuses on tracking and forecasting model capabilities through benchmarks and the Epoch Capabilities Index, and coordinates Epoch AI's Data Insight publications.

luke@epoch.ai

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Five hyperscalers now own over two-thirds of global AI compute
Data Insight
Apr. 14, 2026
Five hyperscalers now own over two-thirds of global AI compute

By Luke Emberson, Josh You, and Venkat Somala

Google controls the most AI computing power, driven by its custom TPUs
Data Insight
Apr. 7, 2026
Google controls the most AI computing power, driven by its custom TPUs

By Luke Emberson, Josh You, and Venkat Somala

Total AI chip memory bandwidth has grown 4.1x per year, now reaching 70 million terabytes per second
Data Insight
Mar. 24, 2026
Total AI chip memory bandwidth has grown 4.1x per year, now reaching 70 million terabytes per second

By Luke Emberson

Anthropic could surpass OpenAI in annualized revenue by mid-2026
Data Insight
Feb. 19, 2026
Anthropic could surpass OpenAI in annualized revenue by mid-2026

By Luke Emberson and Yafah Edelman

Compute accounts for the majority of expenses of AI companies
Data Insight
Feb. 4, 2026
Compute accounts for the majority of expenses of AI companies

By Luke Emberson and Yafah Edelman

Benchmark scores are well correlated, even across domains
Data Insight
Jan. 23, 2026
Benchmark scores are well correlated, even across domains

By Luke Emberson and Yafah Edelman

Global AI power capacity is now comparable to peak power usage of New York State
Data Insight
Jan. 16, 2026
Global AI power capacity is now comparable to peak power usage of New York State

By Yafah Edelman, Josh You, Venkat Somala, and Luke Emberson

Global AI computing capacity is doubling every 7 months
Data Insight
Jan. 9, 2026
Global AI computing capacity is doubling every 7 months

By Josh You, Venkat Somala, Yafah Edelman, and Luke Emberson

Chinese AI models have lagged the US frontier by 7 months on average since 2023
Data Insight
Jan. 2, 2026
Chinese AI models have lagged the US frontier by 7 months on average since 2023

By Luke Emberson

GPUs account for about 40% of power usage in AI data centers
Data Insight
Dec. 18, 2025
GPUs account for about 40% of power usage in AI data centers

By Luke Emberson and Ben Cottier

Epoch’s Capabilities Index stitches together benchmarks across a wide range of difficulties
Data Insight
Nov. 6, 2025
Epoch’s Capabilities Index stitches together benchmarks across a wide range of difficulties

By Jaeho Lee and Luke Emberson

Open-weight models lag state-of-the-art by around 3 months on average
Data Insight
Oct. 30, 2025
Open-weight models lag state-of-the-art by around 3 months on average

By Luke Emberson

AI capabilities have steadily improved over the past year
Data Insight
Sep. 30, 2025
AI capabilities have steadily improved over the past year

By Luke Emberson

What did it take to train Grok 4?
Data Insight
Sep. 12, 2025
What did it take to train Grok 4?

By James Sanders, Luke Emberson, and Yafah Edelman

GPT-5 and GPT-4 were both major leaps in benchmarks from the previous generation
Data Insight
Aug. 29, 2025
GPT-5 and GPT-4 were both major leaps in benchmarks from the previous generation

By Luke Emberson and Josh You

Frontier AI performance becomes accessible on consumer hardware within a year
Data Insight
Aug. 15, 2025
Frontier AI performance becomes accessible on consumer hardware within a year

By Venkat Somala and Luke Emberson

Compute is not a bottleneck for robotic manipulation
Data Insight
Aug. 8, 2025
Compute is not a bottleneck for robotic manipulation

By Ben Cottier, Scott Longwell, James Sanders, David Owen, Yafah Edelman, and Luke Emberson

Frontier training runs will likely stop getting longer by around 2027
Data Insight
Jul. 25, 2025
Frontier training runs will likely stop getting longer by around 2027

By Luke Emberson and Yafah Edelman

Acquisition costs of leading AI supercomputers have doubled every 13 months
Data Insight
Jun. 5, 2025
Acquisition costs of leading AI supercomputers have doubled every 13 months

By Konstantin F. Pilz, Robi Rahman, James Sanders, Luke Emberson, and Lennart Heim

The US hosts the majority of GPU cluster performance, followed by China
Data Insight
Jun. 5, 2025
The US hosts the majority of GPU cluster performance, followed by China

By Konstantin F. Pilz, Robi Rahman, James Sanders, Luke Emberson, and Lennart Heim

Private-sector companies own a dominant share of GPU clusters
Data Insight
Jun. 5, 2025
Private-sector companies own a dominant share of GPU clusters

By Konstantin F. Pilz, Robi Rahman, James Sanders, Luke Emberson, and Lennart Heim

Power requirements of leading AI supercomputers have doubled every 13 months
Data Insight
Jun. 5, 2025
Power requirements of leading AI supercomputers have doubled every 13 months

By Konstantin F. Pilz, Robi Rahman, James Sanders, Luke Emberson, and Lennart Heim

Widespread adoption of new numeric formats took 3-4 years in past cycles
Data Insight
May 28, 2025
Widespread adoption of new numeric formats took 3-4 years in past cycles

By Venkat Somala and Luke Emberson

The computational performance of leading AI supercomputers has doubled every nine months
Data Insight
Updated Jun. 5, 2025
The computational performance of leading AI supercomputers has doubled every nine months

By Konstantin F. Pilz, Robi Rahman, James Sanders, Luke Emberson, and Lennart Heim

LLM responses to benchmark questions are getting longer over time
Data Insight
Apr. 17, 2025
LLM responses to benchmark questions are getting longer over time

By Luke Emberson, Ben Cottier, Josh You, Tom Adamczewski, and Jean-Stanislas Denain

The combined revenues of leading AI companies grew by over 9x in 2023-2024
Data Insight
Apr. 3, 2025
The combined revenues of leading AI companies grew by over 9x in 2023-2024

By Ben Snodin, David Owen, and Luke Emberson

Leading AI chip designs are used for around four years in frontier training
Data Insight
Mar. 5, 2025
Leading AI chip designs are used for around four years in frontier training

By Luke Emberson, Ben Snodin, and David Owen

The stock of computing power from NVIDIA chips is doubling every 10 months
Data Insight
Feb. 13, 2025
The stock of computing power from NVIDIA chips is doubling every 10 months

By Luke Emberson and David Owen

Over 30 AI models have been trained at the scale of GPT-4
Data Insight
Updated Jun. 6, 2025
Over 30 AI models have been trained at the scale of GPT-4

By Robi Rahman, Lovis Heindrich, David Owen, and Luke Emberson

Frontier open models may surpass 1e26 FLOP of training compute before 2026
Data Insight
Jan. 15, 2025
Frontier open models may surpass 1e26 FLOP of training compute before 2026

By Luke Emberson

Training compute growth is driven by larger clusters, longer training, and better hardware
Data Insight
Jan. 8, 2025
Training compute growth is driven by larger clusters, longer training, and better hardware

By Luke Emberson and David Owen

The power required to train frontier AI models is doubling annually
Data Insight
Sep. 19, 2024
The power required to train frontier AI models is doubling annually

By Luke Emberson and Robi Rahman

The length of time spent training notable models is growing
Data Insight
Aug. 16, 2024
The length of time spent training notable models is growing

By Luke Emberson