The Future of AI: Data & Research

How powerful will AI become, and how fast? Epoch develops quantitative forecasting models to project where AI is heading, from near-term trends in compute and capabilities to longer-term questions about AI timelines, including when AI might become truly transformative, a threshold sometimes discussed as artificial general intelligence (AGI) or transformative AI (TAI). Epoch examines the evidence behind these forecasts, and tracks what current trends reveal about future AI progress.