Gradient Updates

May 16, 2025 · 8 min read

How Fast Can Algorithms Advance Capabilities?

By Henry Josephson

May 09, 2025 · 10 min read

How far can reasoning models scale?

By Josh You

May 02, 2025 · 10 min read

Where’s my ten minute AGI?

By Anson Ho

Apr 26, 2025 · 12 min read

The case for multi-decade AI timelines

By Ege Erdil

Mar 28, 2025 · 4 min read

The real reason AI benchmarks haven’t reflected economic impacts

By Anson Ho and Jean-Stanislas Denain

Mar 21, 2025 · 15 min read

Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R&D

By Ege Erdil and Matthew Barnett

Mar 07, 2025 · 10 min read

What AI can currently do is not the story

By Ege Erdil

Feb 28, 2025 · 14 min read

The promise of reasoning models

By Matthew Barnett

Feb 21, 2025 · 11 min read

AI progress is about to speed up

By Ege Erdil

Feb 14, 2025 · 13 min read

Algorithmic progress likely spurs more spending on compute, not less

By Matthew Barnett

Feb 07, 2025 · 22 min read

How much energy does ChatGPT use?

By Josh You

Jan 31, 2025 · 14 min read

What went into training DeepSeek-R1?

By Ege Erdil

Jan 24, 2025 · 16 min read

AGI could drive wages below subsistence level

By Matthew Barnett

Jan 17, 2025 · 12 min read

How has DeepSeek improved the Transformer architecture?

By Ege Erdil

Jan 10, 2025 · 16 min read

The economic consequences of automating remote work

By Matthew Barnett

Dec 27, 2024 · 9 min read

Moravec’s paradox and its implications

By Ege Erdil

Dec 20, 2024 · 10 min read

How do mixture-of-experts models compare to dense models in inference?

By Ege Erdil

Dec 13, 2024 · 8 min read

Frontier language models have become much smaller

By Ege Erdil

Dec 06, 2024 · 8 min read

What did US export controls mean for China’s AI capabilities?

By Ege Erdil