China is 2.7× as exposed to semiconductor supply shocks as the US, Epoch AI estimates. Epoch traces chips through input-output tables to model the impact of a Taiwan shock and decoupling.

Memory shipped through 2027 could run 33–171 million concurrent frontier-model agents, or billions using efficient open models. Epoch AI estimates inference capacity from HBM supply, serving benchmarks, and agent-hour costs.

Epoch AI measures how fast the cost of a given level of AI performance is falling across five benchmarks covering math, science and games of skill: about 47% per quarter, or 13x per year, since 2023, faster than electricity, compute, batteries or DNA sequencing ever fell.

US GDP growth has been underestimated by about 0.3 percentage points because statistics miss most of Nvidia's US-generated income, a gap that could widen to 2 points by 2028. Epoch AI traces the accounting gap through Nvidia's fabless chip supply chain.

One in five US workers say AI now does work they once handed to a coworker or contractor, per a new Epoch AI/Ipsos survey of 1,106 employed adults.

Even with automated AI R&D producing millions of virtual researchers, progress may be capped by our ability to divide, coordinate, and recombine their work. Epoch AI on why parallelization technology is a missing parameter in intelligence explosion models.

Proposing a new way to track AI research automation

A simple taxonomy of the main proposals for post-AGI universal redistribution.

Investment spending on AI data centers, hardware, and networking together amounted to 1.4% of US GDP in Q1 2026, up from 0.7% — a rapid rise driven by AI infrastructure that has made the buildout a leading driver of growth in US private investment.

OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI used just 20-30% of global AI compute in 2025, despite launching the AI boom. Epoch AI's analysis of frontier lab compute allocation and growth trajectories through 2027.