Isabel Juniewicz is a senior researcher at Epoch AI. She previously worked as a researcher at Open Philanthropy (now Coefficient Giving) and at Forethought. She has a masters degree in economics from UCLA and an undergraduate quadruple major in economics, mathematics, statistics and computer science.

We estimate that between 290,000 and 1.6 million H100-equivalents (H100e) were smuggled to China through 2025. Our median estimate of 660,000 H100e would be roughly a third of China's total compute.

