AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
Feedback and review
We thank Daniel Carey, Erich Grunewald, Amelia Michael, Konstantin Pilz, and Josh You for providing useful feedback on the data, methodology, analysis, and presentation. Any remaining errors and the conclusions expressed here are the authors’ responsibility.
Data sources
We gratefully acknowledge the statistical agencies, customs authorities, and international organizations whose data makes this work possible. The source data has been selected, combined, and transformed by Epoch AI as described in the methodology. The resulting estimates are our own; acknowledgment does not imply endorsement by any data provider.
Australia. Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data: international merchandise trade statistics, obtained through UN Comtrade. The freight adjustment and other transformations are by Epoch AI.
Canada. Adapted from Statistics Canada, Canadian international merchandise trade statistics, monthly observations for 2021–2026, obtained through UN Comtrade. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
China. Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, Customs Statistics, online query platform.
European Union. Source: Eurostat, COMEXT, dataset DS-045409 (EU trade since 1988 by HS2–4–6 and CN8; main extract accessed September 15, 2026), and PRODCOM production statistics. © European Union. Data processed by Epoch AI; Eurostat is not responsible for the resulting analysis. We also acknowledge the contributing national authorities of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.
Hong Kong. Source: Census and Statistics Department website, Hong Kong Merchandise Trade Statistics (Trade-IDDS). Intellectual property rights belong to the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Data adapted by Epoch AI.
India. Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India, and the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S), TRADESTAT Monthly Export Import Data Bank. Data adapted by Epoch AI.
Indonesia. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Export–Import (Ekspor–Impor) statistics, accessed through the BPS WebAPI; main extract accessed September 14, 2026. Data adapted by Epoch AI.
Japan. Created by Epoch AI based on Trade Statistics of Japan (Ministry of Finance), obtained through the Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat).
Malaysia. Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Malaysia External Trade Statistics (METS Online). Data adapted by Epoch AI, including the re-export deduction described in the methodology.
Mexico. Fuente: INEGI, Balanza Comercial de Mercancías de México (BCMM). Data adapted by Epoch AI.
Saudi Arabia. Source: General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), International Trade Statistics, obtained through UN Comtrade. Data adapted by Epoch AI.
Singapore. Contains information from Enterprise Singapore’s Detailed Trade Dataset (T010001 and T010002), accessed on August 17, 2026, through Singapore Department of Statistics, SingStat TableBuilder, and made available under the Singapore Open Data Licence version 1.0. Data adapted by Epoch AI; the adaptations are not attributed to Enterprise Singapore or the Department of Statistics.
South Korea. Source: Korea Customs Service, Export and Import Trade Statistics, 2022–2026, Trade Statistics portal; main extract accessed September 14, 2026. Data adapted by Epoch AI.
Taiwan. Source: Customs Administration, Ministry of Finance, Trade Statistics Search. Data adapted by Epoch AI.
Thailand. Source: Ministry of Commerce, Thailand, Trade Statistic Report System, compiled from Thai Customs Department data. Data adapted by Epoch AI.
United Kingdom. Sources: HM Revenue & Customs, Overseas Trade Statistics (UK Trade Info), and Office for National Statistics, UK manufacturers’ sales by product (ProdCom). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
United States. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Trade in Goods, monthly import and export statistics, 2022–2026, Census Data API; main extract accessed September 14, 2026. The analysis and conclusions are those of Epoch AI.
International and supplementary sources
UN Comtrade. We acknowledge the United Nations Statistics Division and the reporting national statistical and customs authorities for data obtained through UN Comtrade, including the Australian, Canadian, and Saudi Arabian records and supplementary historical and baseline-series inputs. These supplementary inputs also include Brazil, Iceland, Israel, New Zealand, Norway, South Africa, Switzerland, and Turkey. We acknowledge the data limitations set out in UN Comtrade’s Read Me First (Disclaimer).
We also acknowledge the International Monetary Fund for exchange-rate data and CEPII for the BACI data used in supporting historical comparisons. The accompanying source documentation records extraction dates and historical supplements; the main-extract dates above do not describe every source vintage.