China is 2.7× as exposed to semiconductor supply shocks as the US, Epoch AI estimates. Epoch traces chips through input-output tables to model the impact of a Taiwan shock and decoupling.

US GDP growth has been underestimated by about 0.3 percentage points because statistics miss most of Nvidia's US-generated income, a gap that could widen to 2 points by 2028. Epoch AI traces the accounting gap through Nvidia's fabless chip supply chain.