One proxy for research output is the number of papers published over time. Top economics journals are often limited by editor and peer-review capacity. Even as submissions have increased, publication counts have often remained fixed due to explicit or implicit publication caps. Conversely, preprint publications on arXiv, which provides minimal quality assurance, have grown.

NBER working papers come from a relatively stable, vetted pool of affiliated economists and face fewer publication restrictions, since they are not peer-reviewed. If AI speeds up writing and analysis, these researchers could issue papers faster.

We count working papers from the metadata files NBER publishes for public use, by the month each paper was released. We include preprints from the now-discontinued technical and historical working paper categories. Data from the current month is incomplete, so it is hidden unless “Show partial data” is toggled on.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.